MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI MAR 28 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...IN/ERN IL/WRN KY/SWRN MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 281622Z - 281815Z
LINES OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN IL AND MOVE NE
INTO WRN IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A THREAT
FOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SERN WI SURFACE CYCLONE
HAS INCREASED DEWPOINTS OVER FAR ERN IL/WRN IN INTO THE MID 50S F
RESULTING IN SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAX...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING FROM 40 TO 55 KT BY 20Z SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH LINEAR STORMS...AS WELL AS THE
CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALSO...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WW MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 03/28/2003
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
41258773 42888699 43058582 42488509 39348604 38298632
36738704 36708901 37878875 38908834
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