MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 AM CST SUN MAR 30 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...WRN MD...CENTRAL PA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 301527Z - 301815Z
   
   CORRECTED TO REMOVE REPORTED SNOWFALL IN ERN WV
   
   HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT 1-2 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
   THE AREA FROM ERN WV/WRN VA NNEWD THROUGH WRN MD...INCLUDING
   PORTIONS OF THE WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND INTO CENTRAL PA...WITH
   ISOLATED HEAVIER RATES WITHIN CONVECTIVE SNOW.	   
   
   12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ORIENTED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH COUPLED 150+ KT UPPER JETS 
   OVER ERN WV/WRN VA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA...RESULTING IN STRONG
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  700 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE
   ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OF CONCERN WITH A 50 KT SLY WIND PER 12Z
   IAD SOUNDING.  STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
   REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES MOVING INTO
   CENTRAL PA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  850 MB LOW OVER
   WRN SC THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO TRACK NNEWD TOWARD ERN MD BY
   18Z AND THEN INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z.  THIS TRACK WILL RESULT
   IN INCREASING NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...FURTHER ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/30/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38097829 37377919 38188037 39687922 41157798 41607655
   40007694