MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97...
   
   VALID 060813Z - 061000Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR WW NUMBER...SHOULD BE WW0097
   
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ENTIRE WATCH AREA FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
   NWRN TX/SWRN OK /W OF SPS/ WITH PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   ESEWD THROUGH THE METROPLEX AND INTO CNTRL LA. A SECONDARY WARM
   FRONT ALSO EXISTS FROM THIS LOW ENEWD TO NEAR OKC AND THEN EWD
   INTO W-CNTRL AR.
   
   LATEST VWP/PROFILER PLAN VIEW DATA INDICATE SLY 40-50KT LLJ AXIS
   FROM WRN TX ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND INTO S-CNTRL KS. 06Z RUC
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA THROUGH 12Z. ENHANCED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
   LLJ AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS ABOVE COOL BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. THUS...THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE
   TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WILL PERSIST AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 
   REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH CLOUD
   BEARING LAYER.
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
   TOWARD 12Z ACROSS SWRN OK AS DEVELOPING LOW NEAR SPS DEEPENS AND
   MOVES NEWD. AT THIS TIME...RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
   CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE SURGING EWD INTO FAR SWRN
   OK/NWRN TX WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT
   WILL EXIST.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/06/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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