MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0912 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 061412Z - 061615Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX NORTHWEST OF
   DFW.  IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
   REQUIRED FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX SOON.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LINE OF TCU AND
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   LIKELY FORMING NEAR DEVELOPING DRYLINE.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF STORMS
   IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MUCAPE
   VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP...BUT
   LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY BE QUICKLY
   ERODING CAP TO ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST FWD VAD PROFILE
   INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 3KM SR HELICITY VALUES ESTIMATED
   TO BE 200-400 M2/S2.  DESPITE EARLY TIMING...THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   BECOME SEVERE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND EVEN
   TORNADOES BY LATE MORNING.
   
   ..HART.. 04/06/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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