MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/AR/SW TN/NW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...102...
   
   VALID 061727Z - 061930Z
   
   ...SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS WATCH AREAS...
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   SE OK/SRN AR/NRN MS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
   AFTN ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
   60 KTS...ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS AR/WRN TN AND INCREASE TO AROUND
   40KTS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTN. 
   
   IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN OK WILL
   LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AND THERE MAY BE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. 0-1KM SRH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES AND LCL
   HEIGHTS ARE LESS THAN 1000 FEET. 
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/06/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
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