MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...APALACHEE
   BAY...NRN-MOST FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 081532Z - 081830Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY MOVE OFF GULF AND PRODUCE
   DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL OVER PORTIONS GULF/FRANKLIN/LIBERTY/SERN BAY
   COUNTIES NEAR AQQ BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
   REGION GIVEN SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THREAT.  HOWEVER
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN A FEW HOURS FOR NRN FL WHERE SEVERE
   CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SRN DUVAL COUNTY
   TO GNV THEN GENERALLY WWD ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY AND APALACHEE BAY
   TO JUST INLAND FROM CAPE SAN BLAS.  THOUGH MINOR MESO-BETA SCALE
   PERTURBATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
   QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION
   THAT FORMS.  EXPECT THERMAL CONTRAST AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT
   TO LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO BE MAINTAINED BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC
   HEATING ACROSS BOUNDARY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SOMEWHAT
   STEEPER LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 12Z TLH RAOB...COMPARED TO
   JAX SOUNDING...SHOULD SPREAD OVER REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES WARMING AND CAPS WEAKEN.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH 80S/70S TEMP/DEW
   POINTS RESPECTIVELY AT SFC.  THOUGH PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LOW
   LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SR WINDS WILL EXIST...DEEP-LAYER
   KINEMATICS SUPPORT SMALL BOWS AND HP SUPERCELLS...WITH 40-50 KT
   SHEAR FORECAST THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER.  
   
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/08/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
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