MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX OK KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 118...
   
   VALID 152032Z - 152230Z
   
   EXIT REGION OF INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO SHIFT
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE DALHART TX/CLOVIS NM AREAS
   WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  AS FRONT ADVANCES INTO DRY LINE...NOW
   EXTENDING FROM THE GARDEN CITY/DODGE CITY KS AREA INTO THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE WEST OF CHILDRESS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   EXIT REGION OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS
   PROGGED INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF DODGE CITY...GAGE AND ALTUS BY
   16/00Z...AND WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG DRY LINE
   WEST OF 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  WITH SURFACE
   DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...LOW-LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/15/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...
   
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