MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...MN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...
VALID 160134Z - 160300Z
EXPECT ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT WW #122 FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF RWF EWD...TO NNW OF RST...EWD TO NORTH OF
LSE. MUCH OF THE PAST AND ONGOING ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY YIELDING A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM THE MOST RECENT MINNEAPOLIS VAD
PROFILE WHICH SHOWS EAST WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1KM. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS COUPLED
WITH STRONG MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...7.5 C/KM...EXPECT SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.
..NADEN.. 04/16/2003
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
45249507 45519472 45729269 45569043 43489044 43309474
44479499
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