MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX/SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...
   
   VALID 190911Z - 191115Z
   
   LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX
   SHOULD MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO
   SWRN OK. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   POSSIBLE.
   
   CONVECTIVE LINE HAS FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   FROM QUANAH TX SSW TO ABOUT 60 MI E OF LBB. ACTIVITY WAS
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS
   WRN OK. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 60 KNOTS SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34240008 34809960 34969905 34939814 34719753 33899795
   33099852 32539923 32650089 33700044