MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND XTREME SERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 132...
VALID 200054Z - 200230Z
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT CENTER APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING OVER
ECNTRL KS WITH TAIL END OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GRAZING THE
OK/KS BORDER NORTH OF BVO. THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE NEWD INTO WS
133 AND 134 DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH...LINE OF
TSTMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION...ARE
BACKBUILDING INVOF MLC. VISUAL INSPECTION FROM NORMAN AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CELLS ARE INITIATING/BACKBUILDING ALONG
THE DRY LINE ESE OF ADA AND INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS INVOF MLC. RESULTANT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM MLC
TOWARD THE AR BORDER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LOW LEVEL STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES WOULD STILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
MEANWHILE...PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACCELERATING INTO CNTRL OK WILL
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE THAT SLOWED EARLIER FROM WEST OF
TUL TO ADM. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS THIS OCCURS ACROSS
NERN OK...THEN BACKBUILD SWWD INTO THE ADA/ADM AREAS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THIS RENEWED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE CONFIGURED TO ENCOMPASS PARTS...IF NOT ALL...OF ERN OK
AND PERHAPS INTO WRN AR.
..RACY.. 04/20/2003
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
33969682 35049621 36509619 37279622 37469557 37409531
37029505 35759430 34099420
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