MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...AR...MO BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 255...
   
   VALID 052218Z - 060015Z
   
   CONVECTION HAS COOLED/STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER A LARGE PART OF
   SOUTH CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...BUT NARROW TONGUE OF VERY MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND THAT
   EXTENDS WEST NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK THROUGH THE JONESBORO AR AREA
   ...ON NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA. 
   MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
   BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  HODOGRAPHS ALSO APPEAR TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
   TORNADOES WITH STRONGER SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING INTENSE CELL NOW
   DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BLYTHEVILLE AREA.  THIS SUPERCELL WILL
   CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...NEAR/NORTH OF DYERSBURG ...WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
   HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR.  OTHER SCATTERED INTENSE
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM TOWARD LITTLE ROCK.
   
   OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
   POSSIBLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF EL
   DORADO INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/05/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   34509318 35049241 35839132 36339042 36498941 35938919
   35369038 34549149 33919170 33459119 33009176 33129304
   33119407 33739414