MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/ERN KS/CENTRAL-ERN OK/WRN MO/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 308...311...
   
   VALID 082338Z - 090145Z
   
   PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES OVER FAR SERN NEB...ERN
   KS...NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN OK AND WRN MO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
   
   A TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOVING INTO NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
   TULSA AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z.  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   IN THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 0030-02Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN NEB INTO ERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN OK
   MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35-45 KT.  23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A
   993 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTAL KS NEAR MHK...WITH A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING ESEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF IXD/OJC AND THEN EWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL MO TO JUST SOUTH OF STL.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
   LOCATED OVER SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...INDICATING THE SURFACE LOW
   WILL TRACK NEWD WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD.  WARM SECTOR
   REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   VALUES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/08/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...GLD...
   
   38399782 39419747 39549827 39919979 40839944 40479530
   40139309 34849440 34029764 35509777