MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 330...
   
   VALID 100622Z - 100745Z
   
   TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELL OVER NERN OK.
   
   
   TULSA REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING TORNADOES CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
   TULSA COUNTY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS OVER NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000
   J/KG. TULSA VWP INDICATES THAT 50-60KT SLY LLJ IS RESULTING IN A
   PRONOUNCED HODOGRAPH SPIKE BETWEEN .5 AND 1.5 KM AGL...WITH 0-2KM
   SRH VALUES APPROACHING 400 M2/S2. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /LCL
   HEIGHTS AOB 800M/...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
   FROM AROUND TULSA NEWD ALONG THE STORM TRACK.
   
   RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES
   EWD ACROSS FAR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. THEREFORE...THIS
   SUPERCELL MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/10/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   36009707 36509687 36759672 36919661 36979657 36979651
   36939601 36939557 36919507 36919469 36979437 36939426
   36829435 36169474 35719494 35489508 35399514 35409551
   35419639 35439714 35439742 35759725