MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...NRN KY AND WRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101512Z - 101715Z
   
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX/VORTICITY MAX OVER IL/IND SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF
   DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER FAR NRN KY/SWRN OH. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AS SFC
   WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE PRESSURE
   FALLS OVER NRN OH...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE
   NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION APPEARS NECESSARY
   FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT. IF THE CONVECTION CAN BECOME ROOTED....MODERATE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. 
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
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