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Mesoscale Discussion 960
MD 960 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN OK...WRN/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...
   
   VALID 132033Z - 132200Z
   
   A SCATTERED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WW
   #361 IN ERN/NERN OK INTO WRN/NWRN AR. WW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
   EFFECT THRU EXPIRATION WITH AN ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE FURTHER SOUTH A
   POSSIBILITY.
   
   RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SSE
   /320 DEGREES/ AT AROUND 25 KT INTO ERN OK...WRN/WCNTRL ARK. RECENT
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS IS RATHER
   STABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINT VALUES
   FROM THE UPPER 50S INTO THE MID 60S. THIS TEMPERATURE-DEWPT.
   COMBINATION YIELDS 100MB MIXED CAPES FROM 250-1000 J/KG IN THESE
   AREAS WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES IN ECNTRL OK. MOST RECENT
   SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATES WEAKEN CIN VALUES FROM
   AN OKMULGEE-PITTSBURGH COUNTY LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT BACK
   INTO THE UPPER 60S HELPING 100MB MIXED CAPES TO RISE TO BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   EXPECT ERN PORTIONS OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
   APPROACHES A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME IN CNTRL/WCNTRL
   AR...WHILE FURTHER WEST...INTO ECNTRL OK CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
   STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MESONET REPORTS INDICATE
   WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35-45 KTS AMIDST THE RELATIVELY STABLE REGIME
   IN ERN OK...SO CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX STRONGER
   WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS
   CONVECTION MOVES MORE SWD INTO HASKELL/SEQYOYAH/MUSKOGEE/AND
   MCINTOSH COUNTIES.
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/13/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
   
   34459384 34719550 35209590 36299586 36089356 
   
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