MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 404...
   
   VALID 171814Z - 171945Z
   
   NRN EXTENT OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE
   TN AT 30-40 KT. A SERIES OF INTENSE SMALL SCALE BOWS WILL BE MOVING
   INTO JACKSON....WHITE...VAN BUREN...AND MARION COUNTIES OF TN
   SHORTLY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG MLCAPE AROUND
   1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ENEWD. IN
   ADDITION...25-30KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SWLY AND INCREASES TO
   ABOUT 50KT IN MIDLEVELS SUGGESTING STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
   SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A WIND/HAIL...AND ISOLD
   TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY TRENDS INTO SERN
   PORTIONS OF KY WILL NEED TO MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE
   POTENTIAL CAN INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
   
   36658631 36288639 35498608 35028626 34998371 37088336
   36668602