MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CO/NRN NM/NCNTRL NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 251904Z - 252030Z
   
   WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
   CNTRL CO SWD INTO NCNTRL NM. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...ALTHOUGH A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   UNDERNEATH A SPLIT IN THE MID-UPPER LVL JET...AND WELL
   NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A NRN MEXICAN MID-UPPER LVL
   DISTURBANCE...WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC TSTM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY FROM
   NRN CO SWD INTO NCNTRL NM. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LVL MOISTURE
   AXIS HAS BEEN SQUEEZED BETWEEN GREAT LAKES REGION CYCLONIC MID-UPPER
   LVL FLOW AND SLOW EWD MOVING NRN MEXICAN MID-UPPER LVL IMPULSE.
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IN MANY OF THESE AREAS AMIDST RATHER MOIST MID-LVL MOISTURE REGION.
   
   EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREAS INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS GIVEN BOUNTIFUL MID-LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE... THE
   CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING...AND STEADY LOW-LVL UPSLOPE
   FLOW FROM THE EAST. RECENT SURFACE OBS REVEAL TEMPERATURES RANGE
   FROM THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S IN PARTS OF WRN CO...WITH
   A LARGE RANGE IN DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN NCNTRL
   NM...TO THE MID 50S IN ERN CO...TO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN WRN CO.
   EXPECT A HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL AND
   WRN CO WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME AREAS OF LARGE HAIL
   W/RATHER LOW WBZ LEVELS FROM 5-8 KFT FROM NCNTRL NM INTO ECNTRL CO.
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES / 5-20 KTS / AND WEAK MID-LVL FLOW /
   5-15 KTS/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/25/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...
   
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