MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 312029Z - 312300Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  A WW MAY
   BE REQUIRED.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE
   CONVERGENCE...FROM CHAVES COUNTY NM EXTENDING SSEWD BETWEEN INK AND
   MAF...AND SWD INTO TERRELL COUNTY TX.  DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE
   MID 50S F AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MIXED OUT.  MODIFIED FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH 1500-2500 J/KG
   AND LITTLE CIN.  
   
   AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 1-2 KM DEEP 10-15 KT SELY FLOW...BELOW 10-20
   KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW.	COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...THIS
   WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS.  AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF STORMS MOVE
   SWWD OFF THE HODOGRAPH.  GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP
   MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYERS...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. 
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...AS
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THROUGH 200 MB.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/31/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   33590428 33750400 33660361 33430300 33000247 32750214
   32410186 31950141 31700124 31240091 30550158 30070247
   30260272 31230311 31960353 32720411