MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...FAR NWRN SD/SWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 021833Z - 022030Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT
   WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT AND THUS A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   CENTRAL MT. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
   OVERSPREAD ERN MT AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPERATURES IN
   THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LOW
   TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
   THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD
   ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 02/20Z DAY ONE
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/02/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...GGW...BYZ...
   
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