MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM/SERN CO AND THE FAR NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 022006Z - 022200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RATON RIDGE AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
   MTNS OF SERN CO/NERN NM OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION THAT
   DEVELOPS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE. THUS A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 02/22Z.
   
   19Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RECENT VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES THAT THE
   SFC-700 MB RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED INTO FAR EAST CO/ERN NM. IN ITS
   WAKE...SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME ESELY OVER SERN CO AND NERN NM. RECENT
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOD-TOWERING
   CU OVER THE RATON RIDGE/PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF
   SERN CO. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER MOST OF
   NERN NM...MID-UPPER 40S...AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   50S EXTENDED FROM THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS FAR NERN NM WWD INTO THE
   PUB/TRINIDAD AREA. ALONG THIS AXIS  MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WAS PRESENT. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS...EXPECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NWWD INTO MOST OF NERN
   NM. 35-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AS LOW LEVEL JET
   INCREASES BY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME
   CONSOLIDATED INTO AN MCS WITH AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER
   FAR SERN CO/NERN NM AND THE NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/02/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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