MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN TX PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478...
   
   VALID 042027Z - 042200Z
   
   THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW. IN
   ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL. THUS...WW0477 HAS
   BEEN UPGRADED TO TORNADO WATCH 478.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM CIMARRON
   COUNTY OK/DALLAM COUNTY TX WWD INTO UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES IN
   NERN NM. LATEST MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SURFACE LOW INVOF
   RTN WITH A NNW-SSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM ERN
   UNION COUNTY INTO OLDHAM/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL.
   FARTHER W...DRYLINE HAS BEGUN MIXING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD FROM MORA INTO SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES
   IN NERN NM.
   
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING TSTMS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. TCC PROFILER HAS
   SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDSPEEDS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER TODAY WITH
   30-35KTS NOW PRESENT THROUGH THIS LAYER. MOREOVER... BOUNDARY-LAYER
   WINDS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY OUT OF THE SE OVER THE WRN TX PNHDL
   INTO NERN NM...RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. RUC ANALYSIS
   FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THAT 0-1KM SRH VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
   100 M2/S2 INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN TX PNHDL. THIS
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS /700-900M/ SUGGEST THAT
   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
   AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE ONGOING TSTMS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
   DOWNSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/04/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36480518 37360515 38070516 38570513 38610509 38610428
   38610358 38610309 38590294 38290295 36580264 35140239
   34700265 34750309 34830463 34810518 35410519