MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 092042Z - 092245Z
SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKAA AND NEW WW MAY
BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S HAVE SUPPORTED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKAA...
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED TO THE SOUTH OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING/STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEVELOPING INTO
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF NORTH PLATTE...WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET NOSING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...10 TO 20 KT LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH
HEIGHT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA VICINITY OF BROKEN BOW BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS... BEFORE WEAKENING WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CAP.
..KERR.. 06/09/2003
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
41200154 41570138 42030050 41829909 41309859 40689905
40610103
|