MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 130043Z - 130245Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS MOVING SEWD
   TOWARD SCNTRL AND SERN AZ.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   CLOSELY...HOWEVER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOGOLLON RIM
   AND WHITE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE
   DESERTS OF SCNTRL AND SERN AZ. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
   40S TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
   AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
   SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN.
   
   MEAN MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND OVER CNTRL AZ IS FROM THE NORTHEAST
   AROUND 10 KTS...SO ADVANCING COLD POOL MAY OUTRUN CONVECTIVE LINE IN
   NEXT FEW HOURS. NO ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAPPING INVERSION WAS
   PRESENT ON THE 00UTC TUCSON RAOB...INDICATING CONVECTION COULD
   PERSIST ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL AND REACH TUS METRO AREA LATER
   THIS EVENING DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE LARGE
   TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS AND DEEP DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER OVER THE
   AREA...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE
   STORMS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 07/13/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
   
   32411134 32701160 33291157 33361118 33151078 32741038
   32280987 32050958 31500953 31430999 31671073 32081113