MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN WI INTO THE SRN UP OF MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 261025Z - 261230Z
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
ONGOING TSTMS THROUGH 13 OR 14Z.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM JUST N OF LSE TO JUST SW OF IMT. PLAN VIEW
PROFILER/VWP DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT SWLY LLJ WHERE
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION IS BEING MAXIMIZED. WHILE RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
600-700MB LAYER ARE LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...MODERATELY STRONG
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER AND LIFT ALONG
THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS EWD INTO SRN
LOWER MI. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
..MEAD.. 07/26/2003
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
44099104 45079126 45709050 45978951 45908835 45788714
45308668 44728655 44088710 43958898
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