MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR INTO WRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 061736Z - 061930Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   17Z MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A RESIDUAL
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER AL CURRENTLY
   EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL AR SEWD INTO NWRN MS /N OF GWO/. LITTLE ROCK
   RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
   IZARD/INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES WWD INTO NEWTON COUNTY WHERE A SECONDARY
   AND MORE RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SWD AND INTERSECTED THE
   INITIAL BOUNDARY. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG TO THE
   S OF THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER CNTRL AR INTO NWRN MS.
   
   LATEST LITTLE ROCK VWP AND PLAN VIEW RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A
   BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-35KTS AT 500MB/
   ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 30KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... IT
   APPEARS THAT THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
   AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP SWD OR SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL
   AR AND NWRN MS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/06/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...
   
   33959293 34759343 35719368 36129280 35669157 35079102
   34089008 32969011 32709144