MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY/VT/NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 161651Z - 161845Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   AT 1630Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY FROM W-CNTRL VT WWD THROUGH CNTRL NY TO S OF BUF. IT
   APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
   SHIFT THAT EXTENDS FROM MPV SWWD TO S OF ROC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70F ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE WITH
   20-30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NY AND PA AS UPSTREAM
   MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT
   LAKES. 
   
   EXPANDING/DEEPENING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING TSTMS 
   AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-9 TO -10C AT 500MB/
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/16/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   42227969 42927743 43547489 44077318 44057239 42317287
   41337600 40967993