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Mesoscale Discussion 2287
MD 2287 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0124 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN VA...WRN/CNTRL MD AND DISTRICT
   OF COLUMBIA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 900...
   
   VALID 271824Z - 271915Z
   
   AMENDED FOR WW REASONING
   
   AMENDED PORTION:
   
   AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO STERLING...WILL LEAVE WS 900 INTACT
   WITH ANTICIPATION THAT STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILL
   MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WS 900 MAY BE EXTENDED
   INTO THE EVENING IF THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED.
   
   REST OF DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
   
   EARLIER TSTMS THAT MOVED INTO WRN/CNTRL MD DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER
   THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WW HAS BEEN MAINTAINED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IF
   TSTMS WOULD INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN NRN VA/CNTRL MD. 
   THUSFAR...THEY HAVE NOT FORMED DESPITE AN AIR MASS THAT IS MOISTURE
   RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE.  IT APPEARS THAT LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT AND GENERAL DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN
   DETRIMENTAL IN GETTING ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN DEEP MOIST
   CONVECTION.  
   
   HOWEVER...ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS
   IS MOVING INTO THE OH VLY AND IS SUPPORTING A VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS WITH THE HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SRN OH.  EXTRAPOLATION
   HAS THIS CLUSTER CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND INTO THE ERN WV
   PNHDL AND WRN MD BETWEEN 21-22 UTC.  IF THIS CLUSTER CAN BE
   MAINTAINED...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
   BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..RACY.. 08/27/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...
   
   38257928 39707926 39597628 38187633 
   
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