MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN ND/ERN SD/WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 171749Z - 171915Z
   
   HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR ERN ND AND
   NWRN-WRN MN...WITH THE THREAT DEVELOPING SWWD INTO ERN SD BY MID
   AFTERNOON.  AS ACTIVITY BECOMES SURFACE BASED LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.  WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN UVVS/MID-UPPER LEVEL COOLING ACROSS
   THIS REGION.
   
   A NARROW AXIS OF MID 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NNEWD ALONG THE
   SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN APPEAR TO
   BE ELEVATED.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKER CAP /CIN AOB -50
   J/KG/ ACROSS NWRN MN SUGGESTING STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AS
   CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD AND NEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AS UVVS/MID-LEVEL
   COOLING SPREAD EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN SD/WRN MN AS FORCING WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH AIDS IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/17/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   48659418 46189478 44129603 43769874 47059715 48959634