MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE WRN FLA PANHANDLE AND SCENTRAL AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 072332Z - 080130Z
   
   WEAKLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
   THE SCENTRAL AL AND WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...THE MORE LIKELY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADOES. 
   
   23Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK NW-SE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   SCENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLA. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST HOUR. INCREASING MID
   LEVEL FLOW /35 KTS NOTED ON PROFILER FROM WINNFIELD LA/ SHOULD AID
   AN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS /AROUND 10 KFT/ PER 18Z
   PENSACOLA SOUNDING MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
   HOWEVER...GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES THAT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN REMAIN ROOTED ALONG
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IN A REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   EXTENDING FROM SCENTRAL AL INTO THE WRN FLA PANHANDLE. SEWD STORM
   MOTIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   ....GIVEN PRESENCE OF A RAPID SHIFT OF WIND FIELDS FROM SELY TO SWLY
   IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL PER RECENT TLH/PENSACOLA VWP/S.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/07/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
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