MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN QUARTER OF CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 031957Z - 040200Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN CO OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 04/03Z.  RATES OF
   2"/HR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY GREATER RATES OVER THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MAIN VORT MAX OVER SERN NV WITH 
   A SECONDARY FEATURE NOW IN SERN UT...BOTH NEAR THE BASE OF SRN
   STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  
   
   AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLY / SWLY ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AND SLY COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL TROUGH PASSES
   ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE WLY / NWLY.  AS A RESULT...LOW- TO
   MID-LEVEL LIFT / UVV ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST A
   THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH 04/02-03Z.  ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES MAY OCCUR AS NEUTRAL TO
   SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  
   
   PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN
   ADVANCE OF INITIAL VORT MAX...AND THEN AGAIN LATER -- BETWEEN 04/00Z
   AND 04/02-03Z -- AHEAD OF SECOND / STRONGER FEATURE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/03/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...
   
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