MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...FAR NWRN KS...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 032102Z - 040230Z
   
   AXIS OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL LIKELY FROM NERN CO ENEWD ACROSS FAR NWRN KS
   AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
   TONIGHT.
   
   IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN EXPANDING REGION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
   ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX AND
   STRONG 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
   ASSOCIATED 700MB VORT CENTER WILL SHIFT ENEWD TO N-CENTRAL KS BY
   04/12Z PER 12Z ETA SOLUTION. ON THE MESOSCALE...700MB FRONTOGENESIS
   HAS BEEN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...HOWEVER...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BETWEEN
   00-06Z AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPER LAYER
   SATURATION...PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND EVENTUAL MOISTENING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   LIKELY TO STEEPEN...AIDING IN PRECIPITATION RATES. BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF 700MB WAVE LATE
   TONIGHT...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETIC AXIS ACROSS
   NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS THROUGH 06Z. PERIODS OF 1"/HR SNOWS APPEAR
   LIKELY WITHIN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z COINCIDENT WITH LOCATION OF
   BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPORT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/03/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
   39659941 39500090 39410208 39710277 40430286 40770189
   40990014 41019814 40349764 39759807