MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN IL...NRN IND...SRN LOWER MI...AND NWRN
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 041527Z - 041930Z
   
   AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN IL/NRN
   IND/SRN LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW ZONE OF
   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM NEAR BMI ENEWD TO NEAR FWA WITH RATES
   BRIEFLY TO 0.1"/HR.
   
   AT 15Z...IR IMAGERY INDICATES EXPANDING SHIELD OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
   ACROSS NERN MO AND NRN/CENTRAL IL...OWING TO LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF
   100KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING NEWD INTO THE REGION. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
   TROUGH WILL MOVE ENEWD ALONG INTENSE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH 700MB
   LOW CENTER REACHING CHICAGO AREA BY 00Z. STRONG UPPER JET DYNAMICS
   IN ADDITION TO AMPLE NWD ADVECTION OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
   MID-MS RIVER VALLEY SHOULD INTENSIFY PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM NRN
   IL ENEWD ACROSS NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH DURING THE NEXT 6-9
   HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR A NARROW ZONE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
   FROM BMI ENEWD TO FWA AREA...WITH WARM ADVECTION CAUSING ABOVE
   FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN 850-700MB LAYER. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON MOSAIC
   RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NRN MO SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL
   IL/CENTRAL IND THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SHORTER DURATION OF
   FREEZING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...JUST NORTH OF DRY SLOT...A
   PERSISTENT AND ELONGATED BAND OF HVY SNOW IS LIKELY.
   PRESENTLY...1"/HR SNOWS ARE NOTED WITH ZONE OF STRONG WAA ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL IL. ON THE MESOSCALE...HEAVY BANDED SNOW IS LIKELY ON NRN
   FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD...COINCIDENT WITH STRONG 700MB
   FRONTOGENESIS AND HORIZONTAL DEFORMATION IN ADVANCE OF WAVE CYCLONE.
   ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM NRN IL
   ENEWD ACROSS FAR NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   41688353 40978429 40738602 40468794 40438901 40789035
   41709034 42038984 42198972 42588675 42738534 42588334