MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PA / SWRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 042339Z - 050545Z
   
   WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   EVENING...WITH SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES NEAR 0.10 IN/HR
   THROUGH 06Z.  A MIXTURE OF HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW WILL OCCUR JUST N OF
   THE FREEZING RAIN AREA...MAINLY OVER SWRN NY.
   
   23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED FREEZING LINE ORIENTED E-W OVER NRN
   PA...WITH POCKET OF UPPER 20 F TEMPERATURES FROM ELZ TO BFD TO JHW. 
   WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON NOSE OF LLJ.  WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL SHIFT NWD
   OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA ATOP SUBFREEZING SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO SLEET AND
   FREEZING RAIN. ETA AND RUC ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
   TYPES BASED OFF SOUNDING STRUCTURE.  FURTHERMORE...POCKET OF UPPER
   20 TEMPERATURES OVER CRAWFORD/WARREN/MCKEAN/POTTER COUNTIES SUGGEST
   PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROUND HAS HAD MOST
   TIME TO COOL.  FURTHER N...HEAVY SLEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AN ELMIRA TO
   JAMESTOWN LINE...MIXING WITH SNOW N OF THIS LINE.  EVEN THESE AREAS
   MAY CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AS WARM
   ADVECTION PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
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