MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 050141Z - 050445Z
   
   SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD
   ACROSS NY INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL NY BETWEEN 02Z AND
   08Z.
   
   ALB EVENING RAOB SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW
   ACROSS THE AREA...ONCE THE LAYER BETWEEN THE SFC-850 MB BECOMES
   SATURATED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS NEWD INTO ERN NY.
   ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL GO INTO LIFTING...850MB LOW
   IN EAST CENTRAL IL IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD INTO NRN OH BY 06Z.
   THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB LIFTING NWD
   AND RAISING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS LAYER.
   THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SNOW CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN
   AND SLEET BY 06Z. PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND .10 INCH PER HOUR HAVE
   BEEN COMMON WITH THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN NWRN PA/NERN OH AND
   SIMILAR AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE WARM
   ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THE SRN END  OF
   THE AREA...WITH SLEET FROM NEAR BGM TO PSF WHERE THE SUB-FREEZING
   TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DEEPER.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN BELOW
   FREEZING WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OCCURRING ALONG
   AND NORTH OF A BGM TO ALB LINE.
   
   ..IMY.. 01/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...
   
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