MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1038 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/FAR SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 171638Z - 171815Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS SRN LA AND
   FAR SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
   
   CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST WITH
   ANOTHER AREA MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SERN LA. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
   SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE LA COAST. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 750 J/KG OF MLCAPE OFFSHORE WHERE NEW
   CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AS SLY FLOW CONTINUES AND SFC
   TEMPS WARM...THE AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD. AS A
   RESULT...COASTAL SECTIONS OF FAR SE TX AND SRN LA WILL DESTABILIZE
   SOMEWHAT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   ALSO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET.
   COOLING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO OCCUR...CAUSING LAPSE RATES TO
   STEEPEN IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS SUGGESTING A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO
   SERN LA BY MID-AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND THE SHORTWAVE
   PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...
   
   29879484 30529446 30569333 30379187 30089016 29828933
   29088916 28638991 28899205 29109378 29279453