MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SERN LA...MS...AL AND FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 172150Z - 172315Z
   
   A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL EXIST AS STRONG CONVECTION
   CURRENTLY OFFSHORE MOVES GRADUALLY ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF
   THE COAST OF AL AND MS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   ABOVE 60 F. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL NEAR A MAXIMUM IN 0-6 KM SHEAR
   WITH VALUES AROUND 60 KT...IS MOVING ENEWD AND WILL AFFECT THE COAST
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ROTATING STORM IS
   WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO LESSENING INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. FURTHER WEAKENING
   OF THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   AND BECOMES ELEVATED. OTHER STORMS OFF THE COAST MAY DEVELOP
   ROTATION AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. SO THE WATERSPOUT THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 01/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
   
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