MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0720 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...SERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 180120Z - 180315Z
   
   SEVERAL AREAS OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH
   3Z...FROM PNS AREA ESEWD TO CAPE SAN BLAS AND INLAND AS FAR AS
   OZR/DHN AREAS. STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
   SEVERE EVENT AND WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MARINE WARM FRONT OFFSHORE...FROM ABOUT 50 SSE
   PNS TO JUST N OF BUOY 42036.  FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD BUT SHOULD BE
   OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES BEFORE MOVING ASHORE.  LINE OF
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 30-40 KT ALONG FL/AL BORDER...OVER
   PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY
   STABLE AIR N OF FRONT. SUPERCELL WAS EVIDENT AT 01Z ABOUT 20 SSW FT
   WALTON BEACH AND EMBEDDED IN 15-20 NM DIAMETER CLUSTER OF TSTMS. 
   THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN NARROW/ELEVATED LAYER OF MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED 300-500 J/KG BASED ON RUC
   SOUNDINGS.  STRONG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
   ACTIVITY MOVES ASHORE WALTON COUNTY AROUND 02Z...THEN WEAKENS. 
   ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS MAY MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN PFN AND AAF BY 03Z
   WITH STRONG GUSTS...BEFORE IT WEAKENS AS WELL. AIR MASS BECOMES
   PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WITH EWD EXTENT PER 00Z
   TLH RAOB...LIMITING EXTENT OF CAPE DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN OCCUR PRIOR
   TO ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   30348720 30648719 31148693 31488594 31548544 31088517
   29548498