MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX AND WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 180420Z - 180645Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 04Z NEAR A LINE FROM GGG LFK 30 NNE
   HOU -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE TX INTO WRN LA THROUGH AT LEAST 7Z
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   CONVECTIVE BAND CORRESPONDS CLOSELY WITH LOCATION OF SFC COLD
   FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SABINE RIVER INTO WRN LA DURING NEXT
   2-3 HOURS.  RESIDUAL THETAE AT TOP OF DIABATICALLY COOLED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS APPROXIMATELY -20 C...YIELDS
   500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  CONVECTION
   IS ENTERING 60-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   AIR JUST OFF SFC...THEN INSTABILITY DECREASES EWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL/ERN LA.  THOUGH CENTRAL LA AIR MASS MAY RECOVER SOMEWHAT
   WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL WAA...SIGNIFICANT WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   COMPONENT SHOULD PRECLUDE INTENSE MOISTURE/THERMAL RECOVERY. 
   THEREFORE TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER ENTERING LA.  SIGNIFICANT
   BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION TOWARD COAST IS NOT LIKELY BECAUSE OF
   INCREASING CINH WITH SWD EXTENT.  ALTHOUGH MAIN SEVERE MODE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...ELEMENTS WITHIN LINE MAY FORM BOW/LEWP
   STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
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