MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL COAST...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 181152Z - 181315Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF INTO THE TAMPA BAY
   AREA MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR BRIEF /
   WEAK TORNADO NEAR THE COAST.  HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL /
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE ERN GULF JUST W OF THE TAMPA
   BAY AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR HAS ALLOWED SOME STORM ORGANIZATION -- GENERALLY IN THE FORM
   OF SMALL-SCALE BOWS OFF THE FL COAST.
   
   ONSHORE HOWEVER...LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E EXISTS...AND MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD REMAIN
   ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED
   INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
   LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...
   
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