MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 242155Z - 250030Z
   
   PORTIONS OF S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IF CONVECTIVE AND
   MESOSCALE TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WAS RETURNING NWD
   THROUGH TX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW 60S OVER S AND
   SERN TX WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS FARTHER INLAND THROUGH CNTRL TX.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE LIMITED MUCAPE
   TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS. ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND ANOTHER
   INTO SWRN TX. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   INTERCEPTS HIGHER MOISTURE SPREADING NWD FROM S TX. CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD
   THROUGH S CNTRL TX. ONE STORM NEAR COTULLA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
   ORGANIZATION WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...AND THIS
   WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/24/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   28939646 27939809 28859898 30759664 29949507