MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MO...FAR E-CENTRAL KS...FAR SWRN
   IL...AND FAR WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 250122Z - 250545Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
   MO...AND SWRN IL/WRN KY OVERNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.1"/HR TO
   OCCASIONALLY 0.25"/HR LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND 04Z ACROSS SRN PORTION
   OF DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   AT 01Z...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD E-W ZONE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND UPPER
   DIVERGENCE FROM WRN OK EWD TO NRN MS/WRN TN. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FEED FROM THE WRN GULF AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS RESULTED IN
   AN ARC OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL
   TX TO N-CENTRAL AR TO NRN MS/WRN TN. CONSISTENT WITH COOLING CLOUD
   TOPS ON IR IMAGERY...PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   EXPAND/INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET/WAA
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   
   850MB WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS
   AR OVERNIGHT INTO SRN MO BY 25/12Z. THE 18Z ETA DEPICTS LARGE ZONE
   OF 0.5"-0.75" QPF CONSISTENT WITH STRONG WAA LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...ELY BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL ADVECT SRN FRINGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS IND/IL WSWWD INTO
   CENTRAL/SRN MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG DIABATIC COOLING
   WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE FRONT POSITION
   NEAR CURRENT POSITION...BISECTING TN AND EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN
   AR. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST FREEZING
   TEMPERATURES/FREEZING RAIN COMMENCING ALONG A NW-SE LINE FROM 35NE
   CNU TO 20N SGF TO 20S CGI AROUND 04-05Z. FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD
   NWD TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HRLY FREEZING RAIN RATES OF
   0.1"-0.25"...CONSISTENT WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
   OBSERVED RAIN RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AR AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...
   
   37249180 37849432 37979480 38279516 38559513 38989490
   38969459 38939413 38869206 38799107 38749037 38398926
   37998859 37718850 37418851 36918869 36888953 37249181