MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
   
   VALID 250156Z - 250330Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS WW 1 THIS EVENING.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NE TX
   /20 S TXK/ SWWD TO 50 NNW VCT...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING ENEWD
   AT 45 KT.  A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS JUST EAST OF THESE
   STORMS FROM VCT/PSX TO SERN/ERN TX WHERE SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
   MAINTAINING A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   TO MIDDLE 60S. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE WEAK CAP ACROSS THIS
   REGION PER LCH 00Z SOUNDING IS WEAKENING AS UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   NERN TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS SERN/ERN TX.  FURTHER
   WEAKENING OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   SPREADS NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-75 KT SWLY
   MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.  
   
   DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN TX...INCREASING UVVS
   SPREADING ACROSS WW 1 AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR AT
   LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
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