MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
   
   VALID 250446Z - 250615Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH SHALLOW/STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
   CONTINUE...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.
   
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM SERN TX INTO WRN
   LA THROUGH 06-08Z...AS INCREASING UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY
   TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX SPREAD ACROSS WW 1 TO WRN
   LA. 75 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING NEWD ACROSS WW1 TO WRN LA
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH REGIONAL RADARS
   SHOWING A FEW STORMS WITH LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN TX INTO WRN LA WHICH
   SUGGESTS CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. GIVEN STRENGTH
   OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...ANY STORM WHICH CAN
   ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   TORNADOES. HOWEVER..LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
   THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO MAINLY
   HAIL AOB 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
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