MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY AND FAR SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 
   
   VALID 250627Z - 251230Z
   
   SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EPISODE WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS
   OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN KY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NCENTRAL KY
   AND FAR SRN IND BETWEEN 25/09Z AND 25/12Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES
   WILL AVERAGE AROUND 0.10 IN. FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD...WITH
   LOCALIZED RATES APPROACHING 0.25 IN./HR. SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE
   PRECIPITATION INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS...EXCEPT OVER AREAS
   ALONG AND GENERALLY NORTH OF A BMG TO CVG LINE...WHERE SLEET WILL
   REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.50
   IN. CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH 25/12Z.
   
   RECENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE AND RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING
   OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF AR/NWRN MS AND NRN LA...EVIDENT OF
   INTENSIFYING DEEP VERTICAL MOTION. HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
   CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 IN./HR AS THIS STRONG
   VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVES NEWD INTO THE OHIO
   VALLEY THROUGH 25/12Z. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC
   AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED LOW
   LEVEL JET /50 KTS PER RECENT REGIONAL VWP/...AIDING IN A DEEPENING
   ELEVATED WARM LAYER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE
   EXTENDING FROM 50 SE OF BWG TO NEAR PAH AT 25/06Z WILL REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY OF MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AS MODERATE NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   SUPPORT CONTINUED NEAR SURFACE COLD/DRY ADVECTION INTO THE
   MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...
   
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