MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 250711Z - 250915Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 0645Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE
   OF STRONG TSTMS FROM NEAR ESF SWWD TO AROUND HOU/GLS. OVER THE PAST
   HOUR...SEVERAL SMALL BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THIS
   LINE...IN ADDITION TO AN ACCELERATING LINE SEGMENT NEAR THE SABINE
   RIVER WHICH IS MOVING EWD AT 45-50KTS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE
   REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCAPES OF
   500-700 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ATTM
   APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER OBSERVED ON RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS.
   
   AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ALONG 50-60KT LLJ AXIS SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY
   AXIS TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL LA AND INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL MS.
   CURRENT REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   EMBEDDED BOWS/SUPERCELLS...AND IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ARE
   BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED AND/OR CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY A WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   29589435 30149398 30539351 30799317 31319256 31569159
   31259099 30769071 30109092 29499208 29309348