MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC...WRN NC...NERN TN/SERN KY AND SWRN
   VA/SRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 251158Z - 251800Z
   
   A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
   OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 25/13Z AND 25/16Z. HOURLY LIQUID ACCUMULATION
   RATES AROUND 0.10 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN SC/WRN
   NC AND FAR NERN TN.
   
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWPS WAS AIDING IN
   RAPID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OVER MUCH OF GA. FARTHER
   NORTH...LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS
   SUPPORTING HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM 0.10 TO 0.20 IN. OVER
   MUCH OF TN INTO SRN/WRN KY. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION
   ATOP THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT
   REGION FROM THE SW OVER THE NEXT 2-5 HOURS. A VERY COLD AIRMASS
   RESIDES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/OHIO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   ARTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN PA. NEAR SFC DRY AIR/COLD
   ADVECTION ALONG WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWD
   ADVANCEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE IN SC AND WRN NC. SEVERAL TENS OF
   MILES NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE...A
   SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT FREEZING
   RAIN FROM THE PIEDMONT/UPPER COASTAL PLAINS OF SC NWWD INTO THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN TN AND SERN KY.JUST NE OF THIS REGION FROM
   SCENTRAL/SWRN NC NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN VA AND SRN WV...EXPECT A
   MIX OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
   FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LINES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW
   FAR NORTH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER GETS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR
   THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LINE BY 25/18Z BASED ON RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IS FROM 20 E OF JKL TO 25 N OF FLO. WITH THE ESTIMATED
   SLEET/SNOW LINE ROUGHLY FROM  RDU TO BKW.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   33837951 33578044 33618130 34338201 35168206 35868270
   37508327 37258146 35467973