MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SERN MS AND SWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 251608Z - 251845Z
   
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS SERN LA...SERN MS AND SWRN AL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   LIMITED. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING OR
   BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS EXTENDS FROM SERN MS SWWD THROUGH SERN LA. THE LINE
   IS MOVING EAST NEAR 30 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE LINE
   MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NE. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG AND
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT OVERALL TRENDS IN LIGHTNING
   HAVE BEEN DOWN...SUGGESTING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
   LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM
   THE GULF AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN VERY MARGINAL GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD STRATUS
   AHEAD OF THE LINE AND INFLUX OF ONLY MODEST GULF MOISTURE WITH
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...THE
   LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   29709030 31618891 31878779 30568749 29928890 29388995