MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IND...AND
   FAR ERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 251931Z - 260000Z
   
   AXIS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
   IND. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH AND
   EAST OF A LINE FROM 35 E SLO TO HUF TO IND. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
   END AS SNOW ACROSS FAR ERN MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
   
   AT 19Z...999MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS WRN TN IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   REGION. SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
   TN DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD/SUBFREEZING AIR MASS EXISTED
   NORTH OF A LINE FROM CGI TO 20SW OWB TO 40S LEX. PRECIPITATION AT
   19Z INCLUDED FREEZING RAIN AND POCKETS OF SLEET IN VICINITY OF THE
   OHIO RIVER IN SRN IL/IN...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS
   AREA. 
   
   ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...700MB DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER FROM
   FAR ERN MO ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IND THROUGH
   03Z...JUST NORTH AND WEST OF 700MB VORT TRACK. AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
   MODERATE AND ISOLATED HVY SNOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED COINCIDENT WITH
   DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH LATE EVENING. AT 19Z...ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW
   WAS OCCURRING WITH BAND FROM TAZ-IND. THIS AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
   NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
   ISOLATED 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
   ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH OF DISCUSSION AREA MAY RESULT IN
   CONSIDERABLE SUBLIMATION...RESULTING IN SHARP NRN EDGE TO HEAVIER
   SNOWFALL DESPITE RADAR TRENDS INDICATING SLOW NWD MIGRATION OF
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD. 
   
   CONCERNING P-TYPE...12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
   THAN 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. AT IND VALID 26/03Z...RUC 850MB TEMP IS -2C
   WHILE ETA WARMS TO +2C. DESPITE SOME BRIGHT BANDING ON RADAR...SFC
   OBS TEND TO FAVOR RUC SOLUTION TO THIS POINT...WITH MIXED PRECIP
   PERHAPS MOVING NORTH TO HUF/IND AREA BY 01-03Z.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...ILX...LSX...
   
   39978469 40258571 40338706 40258880 39979031 39509144
   38849151 38539093 38758941 38778831 38908697 39008513