MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...D.C. METRO AREA...NRN/ERN VA...MD...NRN WV...SWRN
   PA...FAR E-CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 252306Z - 260330Z
   
   BROAD REGION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS ERN
   OH/SWRN PA/MD/DC/NRN VA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   AT 25/23Z...MID-LEVEL VORT CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES NEWD
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS NERN
   CONUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AND IS NOW
   SLOWLY FILLING ALONG STRONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN N-MIDDLE TN
   AT 1001 MB. DESPITE THESE FACTORS...AMPLE WARM ADVECTION WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD ABOVE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
   STATES THROUGH 26/09Z...PROVIDED BY SWLY 700MB FLOW OF 60-65KT
   PRESENT ON ATL/GSP VAD PROFILES. ETA PROJECTS 700MB TEMPERATURE
   ADVECTION MAXIMIZED IN A NW-SE BAND FROM SWRN PA TO THE SRN DELMARVA
   PENINSULA BETWEEN 26/03 AND 26/06Z. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD AND
   BECOME HEAVY IN D.C. METRO AREA DURING THIS PERIOD /1"/HR RATES
   POSSIBLE 3-7Z/. SNOW IS MAINTAINED IN D.C. THROUGH 9Z WHEN ETA MODEL
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET...AND LESSENING UVV. IN RIC
   AREA...SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH 03-04Z. ONE CAVEAT WILL BE EVOLUTION
   OF DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SWRN VA/SWRN WV
   AT 23Z. PRESENT TRENDS TAKE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRYING ACROSS
   CENTRAL INTO E-CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 00-02Z...SOUTH OF D.C. METRO
   REGION...WHICH MAY LESSEN PRECIP RATES IN CENTRAL/ERN VA.
   
   ELSEWHERE...CONTINUED STRONG E-W DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF VORT
   TRACK WILL DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
   HEAVY SNOW FROM E-CENTRAL OH INTO THE NRN WV PANHANDLE AND SWRN PA
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HEAVY SNOW CURRENT IN CMH
   VICINITY SUGGEST 1"/HR RATES POSSIBLE AS STRONGEST FORCING
   PROPAGATES EWD THROUGH SERN OH/NRN WV/AND SWRN PA DURING THE NEXT
   3-6 HOURS. SOME MIX OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ZZV/PKB/HLG STARTING 5-7Z
   WITH WARMING IN 850-800MB LAYER.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 01/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   37007683 38127829 38717893 39258074 39838180 40828115
   40217830 39797751 39307678 38597608 38237592 37917586
   37467579