MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN PA...NRN DE...SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 260425Z - 260630Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW...AT RATES UP TO AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR...APPEARS LIKELY
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR
   PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   
   MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO
   VALLEY AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
    AS A RESULT...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
   FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
   SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY
   NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL
   GROWTH LAYER WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME
   TO MAINTAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
   
   HEAVIEST SNOW...NOW FALLING FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO THE
   DELMARVA...WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN DELAWARE/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA/AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE
   PHILADELPHIA AND ATLANTIC CITY AREAS...BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  BAND
   APPEARS LIKELY TO THEN DIMINISH/SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE 08-09Z TIME
   PERIOD...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY MAINTAIN LIGHT
   SNOW/SLEET MIX THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...
   
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